Accidental: implies an unintended consequence.

He lists 4 phases of an insurgency (similar to the spread of a disease):

Infection, Contagion, Intervention, and Rejection

These phases are important to understand as it might help in hasting the process or at the least help in putting the insurgency into its context…


Of these, Intervention by the Govt/state might result in the passive population to go active, hence it is important to decide what type of intervention is desired.

The following Q’s were then discussed in class regarding intervention:- How is it viewed by the opponent? What Size? How Long? How involved? For whom (are you trying to help the state/insurgents/ or its people)??

Might OSS type of commitment be the answer, where a small group has the pulse of the situation and can then advise the intervening forces.