·       Author: Peter Schwartz

o   Strategy consultant/Pres of Global Business Network

·       Publishing: Crown Business:1991/6

·       Central Proposition:

o   Through exploration of realistic scenario-based planning, an organization can remain more nimble and prepared to operate in an uncertain future.  "The scenario process provides a context for thinking clearly about the impossibly complex array of factors that affect any decision...The end result is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future."   - xiv, 9

§  ***Good example: Rehearse for 3 plays and you don't know what you're going to perform until you walk out on stage and observe the set detail - 191

§  Again, this seems like something that's more review for this level of graduate course - also reflects JOPP again

·       Supporting Information

o   Make strategic "decisions that will be sound for all plausible scenarios" - xiv

o   Not saying scenarios WILL exist, just that they COULD - 13

o   Research is key - both about the particular scenarios and about the world in general (become well-read, kp an open mind) - 60/68

§  What to look for: Sci/tech, perception-shaping events (watch TV to understand what ppl believe), music (still true?), fringes (not yet legitimized but not fully rejected by center) - 62-69

o   JOPP

§  Driving forces (often fall w/in society, tech, economics, politics, environment - 105) = COGs - 101

§  Predetermined Elements = Assumptions (either true or will consider them true to allow planning to proceed) - 109

§  Critical Uncertainties = CCIRs (find them by questioning your assumptions about predetermined elements - 115) - 114

§  Red Team - 196

§  Key Indicators - 198

o   Seems to have gotten it pretty spot-on w/ global teenager - un/der-employed and disaffected w/ archipelago created by connectivity - 119; susceptible to pandering (AQ) - 127

o   "String of rock videos about fighter pilots - 125

o   **Types of Plots (Good memory joggers/get creativity flowing)


§  Winners & Losers - zero-sum competition - 141

§  Challenge & Response - continual adjustment to overcome challenges - 144

§  Evolution - e.g. technology or perhaps urban growth - 147

§  ETC: Revolution, Cycles, Infinite Possibility, Lone Ranger, My Generation (cultural aspects can play a part) - 151-156

§  You should train yourself to recognize plots - 160

o   Be wary of unbroken line - assuming conditions that change that do not engender any response - 159

o   Scenarios for 2005

§  New Empires (173), Market World (rising tide raises all boats - efficiency of market) (178), Change w/out Progress (competition run rabid - oscillations, very little rhyme or reason) (184)

o   Off the rails - "unacceptable practices" - 208

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